Price forecasts for the dollar euro. Signs your relationship is really serious. What the stars say

Relationships are complex things, and it is very difficult to determine whether everything is good in them. At first glance, it seems that everything is going perfectly, but at the same time, heavy and unpleasant thoughts and suspicions can torment you... How do you understand that the relationship is really serious and there is nothing to worry about?

Your partner's future plans always include you.

A person who does not take a relationship as something serious is unlikely to think about what will happen between you in a year, two or ten. If he makes plans for the future, then only about himself: “I’ll buy a cool car,” “I’ll move to the capital.” If everything is serious between you, all plans are always for the two of you - both of them never even think that life is possible without a soulmate.

The person does not hide the relationship.

Many may consider this stupid, but if a person avoids publishing joint photos on social networks and the “in a relationship” status, most likely he does not want to show everyone that he is busy. Perhaps he hopes that he can find someone else. By the way, it is also important how a person presents his partner in society - does he say something like “my boyfriend / my girlfriend”, “my chosen one”, “my bride” and so on. If yes, there is nothing to doubt - the person understands for sure that you are together for a long time. If not, you should think about it...

You understand that you are different people.

They are different not because you don’t get along at all and it’s time for you to break up, but because everyone has their own tastes, opinions and desires. And both partners take into account the preferences of the other half. If one of the couple does not want to listen to and understand the other, it is unlikely that such a relationship will last long.

You don't think about it at all.

Oddly enough, but if you don’t even question whether your relationship is serious, then everything is great anyway. When they develop correctly, both people feel comfortable, make plans and strive for something, love and are loved, it’s even stupid to raise the issue of seriousness - everything is clear without words.
Have you ever asked yourself this question?

We all remember that the Brexit issue continues to put pressure on the European economy and, apparently, in 2017 it will be the main negative factor among the current latest forecasts. Most recently, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the government is ready to begin the process of leaving the European Union. It must be said that until the last moment, world analysts were skeptical about the issue of exit, but Foggy Albion is already preparing a project and a clear plan for exit.

The euro exchange rate is already taking this event into account, and that is why the end of last year was so negative for the currency. In addition, this step was supported by the new US President. Trump, in one of his speeches, publicly stated that this event would be landmark for both Britain and the United States, and his country was ready to begin a new era in economic relations, and even discuss the issue of a free trade zone. What does this mean for the euro exchange rate, and the future current forecast for the currency.

Firstly, the EU does not really want to provide trade and economic preferences for British enterprises. This is understandable, since a question immediately arises among other countries considering the same step. But they exist, and according to forecasts, their number can only increase in 2017.

Secondly, if relations with the United States in trade and economic terms move towards rapprochement, then Europe may lose a significant part of the sales market, and this is a rich and stable client. Its loss will hit the euro exchange rate hard this year, and will lead to its even lower price in the world.

Thirdly, the harsh rhetoric from EU officials suggests that the issue of further economic cooperation between Britain within the previous framework has too many contradictions on one side and the other. If it drags on, the fall of the euro will be long and impressive.

Euro exchange rate forecast for the year and Fed actions

In turn, the European Central Bank continues to keep rates on the euro exchange rate at historically low levels. In the future, according to forecasts, such a policy will lead to the loss of the leadership of the euro currency in the world and a gradual cooling of the European economy.

Euro exchange rate for 2017 forecast, latest and nearest

There is one more factor left to touch upon in our forecast: politics. As you know, elections will be held in Germany and France in the near future.

The leaders of the election race in France have already been determined. The current president, Francois Hollande, is not taking part because he understands that there is no chance. In part, citizens' dissatisfaction is associated with the introduction and support of sanctions against Russia. Business has lost enough to express no confidence in the government and change direction. And the country’s policy can really change it towards Russia and the East.

For the past three years, Europe has demonstrated unity in observing the world order and international laws on the right of sovereignty and independence. But now, as they say, “the stomach” is taking precedence over the right, and lobbyists for lifting sanctions from Russia are increasingly heard with their calls.

The future election campaign in Germany is also of great concern. The country is preparing to fend off hacker attacks during the election period and defend its sovereignty in cyberspace. Apparently not without reason. German Chancellor Angela Merkel managed throughout 2016 to contain dissatisfaction with Germany's policies regarding migrants and the economy. But in 2017 it looks like it will be even more difficult. If the European outpost is surrendered, then, alas, forecasts regarding the collapse of the euro in 2017 will come true and the EU economy will face serious shocks.

These reasons given above are, in our opinion, the main ones that will influence the euro exchange rate in 2017; perhaps new ones will be added to them, since it is unclear what policy the new US President will pursue towards the European Union. In any case, we recommend taking this forecast into account when trading Eurocurrencies on Forex and not making active trading decisions in the first quarter of this year.

In the New Year 2017, the Russian economy will face quite serious tests - despite such rosy promises from the state government regarding the development of domestic industry, all this is moving at a slow enough pace to feel at least some progress. In addition, no one is thinking about lifting the sanctions, and it is still too early to talk about stabilizing the local currency. In such conditions, talking about what awaits our citizens in 2017 is a very difficult and implausible matter, since everything can still change many times. But still, let's figure out what awaits the euro in 2017?

What affects the euro?

Over the past few years, the European currency has become an excellent alternative to the dollar, however, there are several main factors that one way or another can affect its stability. Initially, it is worth noting one of the most banal reasons - the dependence of the euro on the dollar exchange rate, or more precisely on the demand for this currency. Translated in ordinary words, any negative events with the American currency cause a slight, but still strengthening of the euro. The same process works in reverse, which is why they say that it is simply impossible to assume the development of one currency without the other.

It is worth noting that the euro is a specific currency that is used by a list of most European countries. That is why the declared monetary unit is directly related to the state of the economy in these states. As a result, in order to understand how this currency will develop in the future, it is necessary to take into account all economic indices of each EU member country.

It is also impossible to ignore the fact that the forecast for the development of the euro exchange rate in 2017 in Russia was not affected by Western sanctions, as well as the cost of oil. The state budget of the Russian Federation has always been directly related to the cost of black gold, because taxes from the sale of the declared product made up the majority of the local budget. While the cost of oil and petroleum products was at a consistently high level, there were no problems with the exchange rate of the euro and dollar in the country, but as soon as it fell below all acceptable standards, the situation worsened sharply. Now everything depends on when exactly the Western partners agree to withdraw most of the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation. At the moment, all experts hope that the situation will change for the better (gradually), because otherwise the euro exchange rate will insatiably rise until the country declares a default.

Government and expert opinion

Announcing the opinions of analysts, in 2017 the situation with jumps in the euro exchange rate may be the most unexpected. On the one hand, at the moment the European currency is valued at a ratio of 1:80 to the Russian one, but most likely by the end of this year the currency will rise in price to 90-95 rubles per euro. This situation cannot be called joyful, especially since the difference between the two most important international currencies is beginning to gradually decrease.

According to local experts, by the end of 2016 the Russian Federation may emerge from the recession, and the long-awaited process of restoring the state’s economy will begin. In other words, against the backdrop of such good news, the euro exchange rate will begin to feel more free, which should go down a little among the common people due to its sky-high peaks. True, such a possibility can be considered as real only if the price of oil rises to $80 per barrel.

To be honest, even an inexperienced citizen of our country should understand that such an improvement is simply not worth waiting for, because now the price of oil is at $40 per barrel and, most likely, will lower its level even further by the end of the year.

Forecasts of economists and banks

Bank forecasts for the euro exchange rate indicate that the European currency will be expensive even in 2017. According to the Economic Forecasting Agency, by the end of this year the price of the euro will reach 90 rubles. The forecast from RBC and the data of the famous analyst Mikhail Khazin are at approximately the same level.

Economists are also very concerned about the issue of too rapid depletion of the Central Bank’s cash reserves, which are taken to stabilize the currency at a certain level. Against the background of such a negative factor, which, unfortunately, will not stop in the future, the euro exchange rate may drop to 100-150 rubles per 1 euro.

Results

In conclusion, it is worth saying that despite all sorts of assumptions regarding the possibility of the development of the European currency, in the coming year 2017 the situation may change radically in either direction. Therefore, citizens of the state should prepare themselves for the worst of the endings, while hopes should always concern only the best moments. Therefore, you just have to believe and hope!

Recently, the economic situation in the European Union has been very unstable and unpredictable. Until recently, the European currency was distinguished by its reliability and stability, so it was in this currency that many citizens of the Russian Federation preferred to store their financial savings. But how will it behave in 2017 – should the currency be trusted and what awaits it in the future?

EUR/USD pair: how the euro and dollar influence each other

It is no secret that the EUR/USD pair is the most traded currency pair in the world: it accounts for no less than 29% of the daily foreign exchange trading volume. The explanation for this popularity is simple - it is a reserve currency for most countries, which makes it the most quoted in the whole world. The European currency is not far behind - it is the official monetary standard for 16 EU countries.

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the US financial institution has a key impact on the exchange rate of these currencies. Through the following operations, financial institutions increase and decrease money supply:

Regulation of the discount rate;

Open market activities;

Changes in reserve requirements.

By selling and buying securities, EU central banks and the US Federal Reserve influence the volume of loans and money supply in global circulation. For example, the sale of such securities reduces the investment of funds in the economic system, as a result of which the volume of loans decreases. The purchase has the opposite effect.

Euro exchange rate forecasts for 2017

Those who kept all their savings in European currency in 2016 were puzzled by the question: what will happen to the euro in 2017? And such fears are not unfounded: in the 2nd half of 2016, the European currency depreciated against the dollar by 6%, dropping to the level of 1.05 $/€.

In the new year, the euro exchange rate, according to experts, will directly depend on how the so-called “Brexit” - the exit of Great Britain from the European Union - goes. Let us remind you that 54% of the population voted for the country to leave the EU. Despite the fact that the British national currency is the English pound sterling, Brexit will greatly undermine the stability of the European currency. It is quite difficult to judge how it will behave next year, however, given the high probability of the UK leaving the EU, one should not hope for the former stability of the euro.

Analysts believe that rising oil prices will contribute to the strengthening of the European currency, but oil should cost at least $60 per barrel. In the near future, the price of “black gold” is expected to rise to a maximum of $50, so even the most optimistic forecasts for the euro exchange rate for 2017 do not leave much to be desired.

The euro exchange rate is influenced by the recent victory of Republican Donald Trump and the further policy of his administration towards the EU countries. If there is a sharp change in the course of American policy, this could lead to instability in Europe, and hence a fall in the exchange rate of the European currency against the US dollar.

Another factor that could affect the euro exchange rate is the results of the elections in France, which are scheduled to take place in April-May 2017. Depending on who becomes the next president of France - a representative of the Republican Party or the nationalists, the course of the economic policy of the state, one of the main donors of the European Union, depends.

Rapidly changing events in the world market, as well as the ambiguous situation with Brexit and elections in France, do not allow economists to give an accurate answer to the question “What will the euro exchange rate be?” However, most experts expect a gradual increase in the exchange rate of the European currency against the dollar in 2017, which will be about 1.10 $/€.

Changing the dynamics of currency ratios is a pressing issue that concerns not only economists throughout the country, but also ordinary people. In the context of the developing crisis, the ruble exchange rate is not able to demonstrate stability. The indicator on the stock exchanges constantly fluctuates; people involved in business and trade are forced to constantly monitor the latest changes online, analyze the chart, and make assumptions.

Permanent uncertainty cannot but affect the mood of society. Worries and constant doubts do not allow you to be confident in the near future and make solid plans. One of the available options is to turn to the opinions of experts who are able to give an objective assessment of the situation in the economy at a professional level and predict the further movement of the exchange rate.

The current situation in the financial market reflects one of the worst scenarios. Half of the year has passed, marking its end with a significant decline in the position of the domestic currency. The collapse of the ruble was not unexpected for analysts, since something similar was expected by the fall of this year. However, events began to develop rapidly, resulting in premature significant changes on the stock exchanges. Such a turn does not mean that it is impossible to make plans regarding currency fluctuations for the rest of the year. The position of the Old World currency in relation to the ruble has similar trends to the position of its American counterpart, but does not demonstrate transparency and evidence.

The current exchange rate today varies around 74 rubles per euro. The ratio of the latter to the dollar is 1.11. But parity is not expected. A slight fall in the euro (1%) was caused by a statement by the head of the European Central Bank about negative expectations regarding economic growth in the EU countries.

What are the influencing factors?

The ruble continues to lose its position and sets new record levels, the latter in no way can evoke positive emotions. Factors that influence the foreign exchange ratio in Russia are as follows:

the cost of gas and oil (at the beginning of the year, profits from energy sales on the Chinese market were able to at least somehow bring stability to the economy);
investment policy (at the beginning of the year it was planned to receive benefits from investments in the development of the Crimean region and Asian regions);
Ukrainian crisis (the inability to peacefully resolve the conflict between neighboring countries leads to the impossibility of strengthening the national course);
sanctions policy (organization of exports to Asian countries, reduction of import supplies and development of domestic production in the face of restrictions from the West, experts consider a natural way out of the situation);
the situation in Europe (events in Greece, the direction of German economic influence).

Analysis of prospects.

Expert forecasts, including for the fall, indicate that the eurozone currency will continue to strengthen its position, this will lead to an increase in the indicator from 76 to 88 rubles in October, then to a transition beyond 90 (in December). This phenomenon is associated not so much with the strengthening of the European currency, but with the weakening of the national currency, which will continue in the near future. The following factors contribute to this:

Chinese stock market crash;
bilateral expansion of sanctions (initiation of measures from both the European and Russian sides);
fulfillment of external obligations in the financial sector, announced by the chief economist for the CIS and Russia Oleg Kuzmin, the amount exceeds $14 billion (planned for September);
the impossibility of stabilizing the situation in Ukraine;
exemption from Iran's sanctions restrictions (the likely oil exports from this country in November could bring down the market once again).

The Greek crisis has passed its climax, therefore, today, tomorrow, and beyond, the amplitude between the euro and dollar rates will continue. This opinion is even more true considering that in the coming days the United States plans to raise the key financial reserve rate. This will significantly strengthen the position of American banks, but will lead to a wave of devaluation in relation to other currencies.

If previously devaluation turned out to be an effective measure to support the national economy, then in the current conditions it has ceased to be relevant. This has a direct bearing on the fact that almost all developed economies are heavily dependent on large businesses, which include the real estate market, trade relations and manufacturing. All that devaluation leads to today is progressive inflation, an outflow of funds, a decrease in consumer opportunities and a decrease in investments. An economic downturn is the most likely future news.

Sberbank experts predict an increase in the foreign exchange rate due to another weakening of the ruble’s position, also provoked by a decrease in interest rates, as ordered by the Central Bank. In the current situation, in relation to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev outlined the unacceptability of hasty decisions and the lack of need for them.

Position of the euro in global terms.

Analytics from experts on the RBC TV channel are inclined to note the prospect of a decline in the position of the euro relative to the American currency. This is explained by the fact that investors are trying to avoid investing in euros due to the unstable state of the banking system and the general weak development of economic sectors in Europe. Against this background, the dollar seems to be the most attractive option for investment, especially if the project is long-term.

Europe's dependence on the economies of developing countries also has a negative impact on the economy of the Old World. The Europeans themselves tend to blame the United States for this, not wanting to bear objective responsibility for what is happening. The prospects for a further weakening of the euro on world exchanges and in banks are confirmed by the escalation of the crisis in countries belonging to the European Union, as well as the presence of economic conflicts in the central and eastern parts of Europe.

At the same time, not a single expert takes it upon himself to make a fresh and accurate forecast, but the absolute majority predicts a strengthening of the euro against the backdrop of a weakening ruble. Attempts to create plans and strategies for the next year are considered completely irrational, since the world is experiencing instability in all respects: both in terms of geopolitics and in relation to numerous economic factors affecting currency correlations.