The Communist Party will win the elections in September. Who won the parliamentary elections and why. Elections to regional authorities

On September 18, 2016, elections to the State Duma of the country will be held in all populated areas of the Russian Federation (cities, towns, villages). The original Dec. 4 Election Day date has been changed. Due to the prematureness of the elections and early termination of work, all re-elected deputies will receive monetary compensation for the period of “unemployment”. Representatives of 14 parties are competing for seats in the Duma, but not all of them will gain the required number of “percentages”. In the question of who will win the State Duma elections in 2016, there are many aspects that are not yet fully understood, although the three leaders in opinion polls have already been determined. According to the results of a voter survey and the opinion of experts, three parties will definitely enter the State Duma: United Russia, LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016 - expert opinion

According to experts, despite the rapid decline in trust in the United Russia party, the majority of Russians who fear change will still support United Russia. In percentage terms, the number of seats for deputies from United Russia can range from 40% to 55%: September is still far away, and changes are constantly taking place in the political arena of Russia and the world. In the summer of 2016, the popularity of Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s party, the LDPR, grew at an all-time high. Thanks to the well-thought-out policy pursued by the party and the charismatic, original personality of Vladimir Volfovich himself, the LDPR “took away” a huge part of the percentage of voters from “United Russia” and “A Just Russia”. From the very beginning of the Crimean events, the LDPR supports the decision of the Crimeans and the position of the Russian President, which is also approved by the majority of the country’s citizens. In addition, the liberal democrats “took” part of the electorate from the communists. Gennady Zyuganov is supported by many pensioners and young communists, but their number is smaller than those who adhere to the LDPR party line. However, it is these three parties, among which United Russia is likely to receive the majority of votes, that will determine who will implement reforms and pass laws in Russia, starting in September 2016.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016, forecast

According to the forecast of most political scientists, the United Russia party will win the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in 2016. The number of seats going to representatives from the Communist and Liberal Democratic parties is likely to be approximately the same. About 28-30% of all deputies will be represented by these parties. Most likely, deputies from Yabloko and PARNAS will enter the State Duma. Today, on social networks, in particular, such as VKontakte and Facebook, groups have been created where community members discuss the upcoming Duma elections in 2016 and the likelihood of who will win the fight. In almost each of these communities, a mini-vote is carried out for a particular party. Today, independent voters are going to support the parties United Russia, Parnas, LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Do not forget that the majority of VK users are young people, so the picture (from an age point of view) is incomplete. It is with the aim of understanding who supports whom in the future Duma that public opinion polls are conducted.

Who will win the State Duma elections in 2016, results of the opinion poll

According to the latest summer polls of Russians, at least 45% of the country's citizens are going to take part in the elections to the State Duma of Russia. For some, this percentage may seem low, but in previous elections to the State Duma, the number of citizens participating in them was less than half of the electorate. Today, more than half of those who will take part in the elections on September 18 will vote for United Russia. About 15% of citizens are confident that they will support the LDPR, and about 20% - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Today, about 4% of voters would vote for A Just Russia, while Yabloko is still trusted less (about 2%). About 2% of Russians surveyed generally stated that they intended to spoil the ballots in some way; the same number plans to vote “against all”, crossing all parties off the ballot. The latter are confident that no matter the balance of power, United Russia will win the elections, and it is simply impossible to change anything here.

Today, not only experts and political scientists know for sure the answer to the question of who will win the State Duma elections in 2016. Their forecasts completely coincide with the opinions of the majority of people expressed during opinion polls conducted both in the capital and in other cities of the country. The leader will be the United Russia party, but the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party will definitely enter the parliament. The percentage of deputies from the remaining 11 parties participating in the elections to the State Duma is difficult to predict. The situation is changing every day, which is especially dangerous for the Yabloko and A Just Russia parties, which are almost confident of overcoming the required 5% barrier and receiving the required number of votes.

This question is quite complicated. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation was one step away from the parliamentary majority several times. In 1996, one step away from the Presidential post and... I won’t throw mud at you, you shouldn’t underestimate the power of opposition either. Yes, you can see everything yourself, so there’s no need to explain. But again, competing forces managed to move the elections to an inconvenient time (by the way, as I understand, pensioners and vacationers in gardens can take absentee ballots and vote at the location of the beds; if I’m wrong, then please make a remark in the comments). September is also tentatively expected to be warm. Yes, there are also the Olympic Games (I still couldn’t understand, why should we participate there, just use the allocated money? And then it dawned on me that we need to distract the people before the elections from real problems). Once again it was an unimaginably hot summer (especially August). Well, who will think about elections in such an inferno (this is about the Volga region and the Urals, and not about Moscow and Leningrad)? And at the same time (then I naturally express my personal opinion) trust in the United Russia party has never fallen so low. The last spit by the Chairman of the Government at teachers is generally a gift of fate for any opposition party (since D.A. Medvedev is the leader of United Russia, and teachers are the main contingent serving the elections). Without any participation of the opposition, the petition for the resignation of D.A. has already collected 260,000 signatures. If some media had shown this now, the issue would have been resolved altogether (not with the Chairman of the Government, but with United Russia as a political force), but apparently there were smart people in the leadership and the media stopped publishing, so to speak, news from the margins (petition signings) . What could the Communist Party of the Russian Federation do in this situation? Yes, just distribute the link to the petition on your resources and on blogs on the social networks of your supporters. Result? Yes, the last supporters of United Russia would refuse to vote for it (since voting for United Russia would be a disgrace in society). They will say that these have no shame. Well, don’t tell me, even if they don’t have a drop of shame, they are forced to reckon with public opinion. Spitting on it costs more and more. But...The Communist Party of the Russian Federation somehow does not take advantage of the moment. Either they are on the beaches, or they have dispersed to the regions and are trying to mobilize the electorate at live meetings (do they even think about the course of the election campaign?). In general, they fly (it’s not clear where, like a troika of birds (or plywood over Paris)). But D.A.’s gift He gave them not just a gift, but a priceless gift. I will express my own opinion. If the Petition gets several million signatures, then United Russia will be in the dustbin of history, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. .. think for yourself. Well, if he doesn’t get it, then in my opinion the roles will change. All in all...we live in interesting times. Yes, I didn’t find any more reactions: http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/08/04/1537890.html

YES. Medvedev...at school

Yes...when we were young (how handsome we were). G.A. Zyuganov in the Soviet Army

CLICK

Who would have known then that they would get together?

On September 18, a single voting day took place in Russia, Russians elected deputies to the State Duma according to party lists and single-mandate constituencies, as well as deputies to local government bodies. Turnout in this year's elections was a record low; based on the results of processing 93% of ballots, it was 47.81%. Rain looked into the voting results.

What happened to the State Duma

Only four parties were able to enter the State Duma - United Russia (54.42% of the votes), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (13.52% of the votes), LDPR (13.28% of the votes) and A Just Russia (6.17% of the votes). The LDPR almost managed to overtake the communists; the party had a chance to take a place higher than third for the first time since 1995. “A Just Russia” experienced a large drop in the number of votes cast for the party in these elections: against the backdrop of protest activity in 2011, it gained 13.24%. United Russia received a little more than 49% of the votes in the last elections.
As a result of the voting, United Russia received 343 mandates (140 on party lists and 203 in single-mandate constituencies) and a constitutional majority in the State Duma. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation will have 42 mandates (34 on party lists, seven on single-mandate), the LDPR will have 39 mandates (34 on party lists and 5 on single-mandate), and A Just Russia will have 23 mandates (16 on party lists, seven on single-mandate). For comparison, according to the results of the elections in 2011, United Russia received 238 mandates.
According to the law, those parties that receive 3% of the votes receive budget funding in the amount of 110 rubles, multiplied by the number of votes cast for this party. In 2011, such a party was Yabloko; the party was entitled to almost 248 million rubles. In these elections, the party was unable to repeat the previous result and received only 1.85% of the votes. The closest result to the three percent barrier was for “Communists of Russia” - 2.35% of the votes. According to the results of the draw at the Central Election Commission, they took second place in the ballot with a similar name and almost identical emblem to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which could have brought them additional votes.
Well-known opposition candidates were never able to get into the State Duma. Dmitry Gudkov, who ran for Yabloko in Moscow in the Tushinsky district, could not beat the leader, Gennady Onishchenko. Lev Shlosberg, who also ran from Yabloko, but in the Pskov district, did not even make it into the top three. Maria Baronova, who, with the support of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, ran for the Central District of Moscow, also did not make it into the top three. Her main competitor, Andrey Zubov from PARNAS, took third place in the district.

Reports of violations

Pamfilova called these elections the most transparent, but there were reports of violations. On the map of the “Voice” movement, for example, more than 400 messages are indicated in Moscow, in St. Petersburg and Samara - more than 200, in Saratov - almost 100. The Investigative Committee has already investigated the fact of election fraud at a polling station in Rostov-on-Don, and in Dagestan there is even one of the sites.

Single-member districts

“United Russia” won in 203 single-mandate constituencies out of 225. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation and “A Just Russia” won seven each, and the LDPR won in five constituencies. “Civic Platform” and “Rodina” each had one victory in single-member constituencies. In most cases, parties did not face competition from United Russia.
In 18 single-mandate constituencies, United Russia did not field strong candidates. The heads of key committees and her supporters from other parties remained. United Russia vacated two seats for small parties: the leaders of Rodina and Civic Platform, Alexei Zhuravlev and Rifat Shaikhutdinov. In Adygea, Vladislav Reznik decided to run not from United Russia, but as a self-nominated candidate after the Spanish prosecutor's office put him on the international wanted list on suspicion of involvement in organized crime.

Regional elections

Elections to 39 regional parliaments were also held on a single voting day. Most of them will have four parliamentary parties, but in some regions other political forces have also entered the legislative assemblies. Members of Yabloko entered the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg and the Pskov region. Also, the “Growth Party” entered the St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly.
The heads of the region were also elected on September 18. In all regions, the governors who were the acting heads of the subjects won. In the Chechen region, Ramzan Kadyrov won a preliminary victory; in the Tula region, former presidential security guard Alexei Dyumin won. In Komi, Sergei Gaplikov won, in the Tver region - a native of the special services Igor Rudenya, in the Ulyanovsk region - Sergei Morozov, in Tuva - Sholban Kara-ool, in the Trans-Baikal Territory - Natalya Zhdanova.

Photo: Kirill Kallinikov / RIA Novosti

"United Russia" will receive 343 mandates (76.22% of seats) in the State Duma of the seventh convocation, in accordance with the preliminary election results, TASS reports with reference to the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation receives 42 mandates (9.34% of seats), the Liberal Democratic Party - 39 mandates (8.67% of seats), A Just Russia - 23 mandates (5.11% of seats). Representatives of Rodina and the Civic Platform, as well as self-nominated Vladislav Reznik, elected in single-mandate constituencies, each receive one mandate. In most residential districts, United Russia or representatives of other parliamentary parties won.

After the four parliamentary parties of the new Duma, in fifth place according to the election results, TASS previously reported, are the Communists of Russia with 2.40% of the votes. Further votes between the parties were distributed as follows: Yabloko - 1.77%, Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice - 1.75%, Rodina - 1.42%, Growth Party - 1.11%, Greens - 0, 72%, "Parnas" - 0.68%, "Patriots of Russia" - 0.57%, "Civic Platform" - 0.22% of the votes, "Civil Force" - 0.13% of the votes.

By the end of the count, United Russia had greatly strengthened its position compared to midnight. Then, according to Exit-poll data provided by VTsIOM, United Russia gained 44.5%, the LDPR was in second place (15.3%), the Communist Party of the Russian Federation lagged behind (14.9%), A Just Russia had more than later (8. 1%). The turnout was about 40%, but then increased significantly: after processing 91.8% of the protocols, the turnout was 47.9%. Zyuganov’s words, said shortly after the vote count began, that “two thirds of the country did not come,” were not confirmed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev arrived at the United Russia election headquarters at night.

“The result for United Russia is good,” said the Russian President. “We can say with confidence that the party achieved a good result - it won,” Putin said.

According to estimates by the head of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov, United Russia, taking into account single-mandate constituencies, can receive 300 mandates. "United Russia will have about 300 mandates, maybe even more. This is a constitutional majority. Some want 66%, some 75%, everyone has their own criteria for problems. I think that everything above 44% (according to party lists - ed.), this is definitely a very big success for United Russia. Let’s see whether our forecasts are confirmed or not,” Fedorov said on Life.

The forecast of more than 300 mandates is fully confirmed. Data on single-mandate constituencies at 9.30 am Moscow time were still incomplete, but already quite eloquent. United Russia continued to lead in 203 of the 206 single-mandate constituencies in which it nominated candidates, TASS reported.

The party, obviously, again has a constitutional majority, which United Russia did not have in the previous Duma. Let us remember that she was elected only from party lists (according to the 2004 legislation). “Candidates from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and A Just Russia win in seven districts each, five are retained by the LDPR. Leaders of Rodina Alexey Zhuravlev and Civic Platform Rifat Shaikhutdinov win in their districts.

A number of violations were recorded during the elections. The incident in the Rostov region was considered the most significant.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs confirms the facts of ballot stuffing at polling stations in the Rostov region, TASS reports.

As stated by First Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs Alexander Gorovoy, facts of ballot stuffing at polling stations No. 1958 and No. 1749 have been documented.

Victory of strong statehood

But, according to political scientist Dmitry Orlov, administrative mobilization is becoming a thing of the past. United Russia was helped by the primary mobilization - the primary elections in the spring, and the thesis “together with the president.” A very significant factor in favor of United Russia was Putin’s meeting with its activists shortly before the elections and his statement that he created this party.

Although the company is described as boring, according to the political scientist, this is not the case thanks to the meaningful struggle in single-member constituencies, where many new faces with specific programs were nominated.

The LDPR responded to the social request better than the Right Russia, also drawing back the votes of the nationalists. Traditionally, in times of crisis and uncertainty, this party improves its results, noted Dmitry Orlov.

It is interesting to look at some of the estimates that analysts made for Expert Online shortly before the elections. Tatyana Mineeva, vice-president of Business Russia and a member of the federal political council of the Party of Growth, noted the “strong position of the LDPR”: “The majority of the population does not believe in reforms, and the liberal democrats do not propose them,” she stated. “A Just Russia,” the public figure noted, is falling because it has failed to present a coherent political program.

The forecast of the expert of the Public Duma center Alexei Onishchenko was that the majority of votes in the elections will remain with United Russia, since their voters are those people who are united by the idea of a stable and strong state. “They are not for virtual democratic slogans, but for state guarantees. It is no coincidence that 8.5 million people voted for United Russia in the primary elections. This is a high figure,” he noted.

Denis Rassomakhin, adviser to the chairman of the presidium of the Association of Young Entrepreneurs of Russia, expressed the opinion that the real things happening in the country are associated with the party in power against the backdrop of growing trust in state institutions, primarily in connection with the annexation of Crimea and anti-sanctions policies.

Indeed, it can be stated that the victory of United Russia, while maintaining the presence of noticeable socio-economic problems, ideologically represents the dominance of the idea of a strong, robust, guaranteeing state. The party “does not succeed in everything,” as Putin noted, but it is strongly associated with this idea. The specter of the weakening and half-life of the state does not “warm” the Russian people at all, although for some of the intellectual elites it is alluring.

The upcoming elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation are already the seventh in the history of the country. On September 18, 2016, citizens will once again elect those people who will initiate and pass laws, as well as represent the interests of their constituents in one of the most important government bodies.

What forecasts do experts make? Who will win the State Duma elections? Which party will get the majority? Will the representatives of United Russia be able to retain their leadership and who are called its main political competitors today?

Who will win the State Duma elections: expert forecasts

Russian politics has only existed for 25 years. During this time, a number of parties appeared (and disappeared). A narrow circle of representatives of these parties formed the (virtually unchanged) backbone of the legislative branch. The United Russia Party regularly tops ratings and polls. Competitors - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, A Just Russia, and now the People's Freedom Party (PARNAS) actively promote their ideas during periods of active political struggle preceding each election season.

From the point of view of political scientists and analysts, the elections on September 18, 2016 will not bring surprises. The established system will change (there is a chance), but, according to political strategists, voters still believe that the government should not be changed. According to another point of view, these experts are guided by surveys of past years and do not take into account the changes that have occurred in the public consciousness.

Representatives of United Russia will continue to dominate state politics. At the same time, the latest failures of United Russia and the falling rating of the “party in power” give reason to count on new faces in the State Duma and a new parliamentary majority.
Whether these will be candidates from the LDPR, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, or A Just Russia, time will tell. Analysts are based only on current ratings.

Who will win the Duma elections: poll results

The All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) conducts sociological surveys on the topic of who will win the elections to the State Duma. As of September 4, 2016, the rating of parties according to VTsIOM is as follows:

“United Russia” – 39.3%;
LDPR – 10.4%;
Communist Party of the Russian Federation - 8.7%;
“A Just Russia” – 5.3;
“For justice” – 1.6;
“Apple” – 1.1%.

The remaining parties currently gain less than one percent. Therefore, they are not opponents of the current leaders.

The results of the VTsIOM survey correspond to the opinion of experts, but the latter recommend paying attention to the dynamics of changes in voters' preferences. When analyzing the data that VTsIOM publishes literally every week during the pre-election period, several interesting points can be observed at once. Firstly, the rating of United Russia is falling (in the long term) (up to 5% per month). The party is noticeably losing popularity, but this is not due to an increase in the ratings of its main opponents (LDPR, Communist Party of the Russian Federation, A Just Russia). Surveys show that the percentage of citizens who find it difficult to make their choice or do not intend to go to the polls on September 18, 2016 continues to grow: in August the figures increased from 10.1% to 14.6% and from 11.1% to 14.7 % respectively. All this indicates a loss of interest among Russian citizens in who will win the State Duma elections and in the election process as a whole.

Who will win the State Duma elections: psychic predictions

It is no secret that many citizens use the services of predictors and fortune-tellers and those who know the future. Politicians themselves declare close contacts with such “professional fortune tellers.” Top officials of states resort to the help of psychics, often creating secret departments of special services for this purpose. Who will win the State Duma elections according to such predictors? Psychics and sorcerers assure that the upcoming elections to the State Duma will not cause serious changes in the political map of the country. Experts, analysts, and forecasters are unanimous in their conclusions: in 2016, United Russia will again receive the majority of seats in the main legislative body of the country. This suggests that the domestic and foreign policies of the state will not change.

Additional materials on the topic:

Pension increase from January 1, 2019 and by how much: latest news Minimum wage from January 1, 2019 in Russia: latest news Rules for transporting children in a car in 2019 Federal Bankruptcy Law: 2019 edition